Due to the long-term uncertainty in Italy's on-grid tariff subsidy policy in the first half of the year, coupled with the fierce downstream price war, the global photovoltaic industry has faced a severe test in the past few months and its market prospects have been dull for a time. However, this reporter recently learned from a number of photovoltaic companies responsible person, the parties are still confident about the prospects of the industry, that the first half of the unfavorable situation will be reversed in the second half, and photovoltaic parity Internet access is expected to be achieved in advance.

Decline in price orders to several years

"Since the second quarter, our component plants and battery factories have been producing at full capacity." Qi Xiaoyan, chairman of photovoltaic module maker Arter Solar, told the reporter that "not only at full capacity, we even mobilized headquarters last week. Staff in the office support the overtime work at the grassroots level."

He believes that at least the first-line companies like Artes have not yet seen signs of bad prospects.

Another leading polysilicon maker, Tang Liming, executive director and chief financial officer of GCL-Poly, said that based on the current annual production capacity of the company, orders have been scheduled for the next 8 to 9 years. Therefore, it is necessary to further expand production capacity to meet customer needs.

He predicted that by the end of this year, the company's silicon wafer production capacity will reach 6.5 GW.

However, the large increase in orders can hardly conceal the decline in prices. It is reported that GCL-Poly's average selling price of silicon wafers in the first quarter of this year was $ 0.76 per watt, down $ 0.06 from the fourth quarter of last year. Previously there were reports that global PV modules and battery prices had fallen by 18%-20% within 3 months, while polysilicon prices fell by 10% in a single week.

"The price drop is not a problem, as long as the cost falls faster than the price drop." Tang Yiming said that last year the company's polysilicon cost was 22.5 US dollars per kilogram, hopefully by the end of this year can be reduced to 20 US dollars per kilogram, the cost of the wafer is hoped by the end of last year Watts 0.27 US dollars fell to 0.2 US dollars.

"At least in the next 5 or 6 years, the order is not a problem." Another high-level person of GCL-Poly confirmed in an interview with this reporter yesterday that there was plenty of polysilicon orders.

He pointed out that price cuts are normal, and that the global photovoltaic industry must experience in order to achieve parity online access. "Furthermore, in recent years, the gross profit margins at each end of the photovoltaic industry chain have been high, and there is room for their own decline, but there is a problem of not lowering prices. He disclosed that the price of the "long association" signed by GCL-Poly and customers was reduced year by year.

"Any market fluctuation will drive the integration of the photovoltaic industry, and the integration will help improve the structure of supply and demand in the industry, which will help the more reasonable development of the upper and lower reaches. Therefore, even if the price of photovoltaic modules is reduced, it is also to find a more balanced node in the future." Senior PV industry Gao Gaomiao said in an interview with this reporter. In his opinion, the distribution of upstream and downstream profits in the short-term photovoltaic industry chain may not be uniform, but in the long run, it will surely achieve a balance.

The parties are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year

“If you look at the quarterly reports of major PV listed companies, you can see that most companies are very optimistic about the second half of the year.” Gao Zhoumiao said that the demand for photovoltaics has not dropped significantly. Although there was a bit of surplus in the first half of the year, Jingao, Yingli and other major manufacturers still maintain their forecasts for the whole year.

He believes that the reduction of PV subsidies in Italy and other countries is beneficial to domestic companies, because domestic companies have lower costs and higher product cost ratios, and they can better withstand market changes after price reduction.

Tang Yiming estimated that the overall situation of the PV market will improve from June.

“Actually, every year in the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry will experience such a stage.” The above-mentioned GCL management personnel told this reporter that in the first half of last year, Germany proposed to reduce subsidies. At that time, the situation was still more severe than it is now. After all, the German market is bigger than the Italian market. many. However, in the second half of the year, it has ushered in rapid growth. He predicted that this year's global PV market will still grow by 30%-40% over last year.

According to Liu Qing, an iSuppli photovoltaic analyst, it is still promising for the photovoltaic market, especially after the nuclear crisis in Japan broke out.

A study by the agency showed that the demand for photovoltaics will remain strong this year and will benefit the entire industry. It is expected that the total operating profit margin of the industry will increase quarter by quarter, reaching 16% in the second quarter and rising to 17% in the third quarter. It reaches 19%.

Earlier, after the outbreak of the Japanese nuclear crisis, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said that he needs to reconsider Japan’s energy policy. Many Japanese citizens wrote a letter to the country’s solar energy association, saying that “we hope that photovoltaics can replace nuclear power and become the main energy supply method for Japan in the future.” A survey also showed that 72% of Japanese people hope to reduce electricity in 30 years. Nuclear power components, and urgently require increased penetration of new energy sources.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has also formulated a “sunshine plan” that will increase solar power generation by 15 times to 20 times. In this regard, Zhai Xiaoji pointed out that the nuclear crisis in Japan reminded us of the need to re-examine the cost of traditional energy. With the slowdown in the development of nuclear power in various countries, photovoltaics will also show greater competitiveness.

"After the nuclear crisis in Japan, all countries should re-examine the energy balance and security issues in the new environment. Although in the short term, this incident will not bring too much impact on the photovoltaic industry, but we believe that photovoltaic power generation will There is an increasing proportion of the energy structure," said Xiaoyan.

Zhou Fengqi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told this reporter that if the development of nuclear power slows down, the proportion of other new energy such as photovoltaic, wind power, hydropower, etc. will certainly rise. This is due to the fact that the goal of increasing the share of renewable energy in various countries will not be met. change. It is expected that PV will benefit the most from all types of new energy sources because of its high safety and abundant resources.

Industry sources pointed out that due to the urgent need to release the photovoltaic capacity, the future price reduction of polysilicon is the trend of the times, more optimistic about the prospects of polysilicon cutting accessories. Because once polysilicon production capacity is released, the demand for consumables used for wafer cutting will increase, and companies producing auxiliary materials will be better investment targets, involving listed companies such as Stellar Technology, Shindaxin Materials, and Aoke.

Cheap Internet access is expected to be realized in advance

It is noteworthy that there have been reports recently that a large-scale photovoltaic company in China has been able to reduce the on-grid tariff to 1 yuan/kWh or less, which means that the 1-yuan electricity generation target proposed by the photovoltaic industry two years ago was achieved in advance by some companies. It is also likely that the time for future PV access to the flat-rate Internet may also be advanced.

For a long time, the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of the photovoltaic industry is that the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation is much higher than that of conventional power, while the cost of 1 yuan/kWh is considered as the critical value for photovoltaic companies to open up the domestic market. Two years ago, 13 photovoltaic companies including Suntech Power and LDK announced the “Luoyang Declaration,” claiming that in 2012, the target of on-grid tariff of 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic power generation should be achieved.

"This year, many companies should be able to achieve a cost of 1 yuan / kilowatt-hour or less." The above GCL-Poly management personnel told this reporter, in Dunhuang and other areas with sufficient light, 1 yuan power generation can certainly do.

At the recent relocation of Oerlikon Solar Shanghai office, the thin-film solar equipment giant also announced that the company’s thin-film battery production cost per watt has fallen below 0.5 euros, and the cost of power generation is as low as 0.87 yuan/kWh. This has made it possible to use cheap Internet access within a certain range.

"Only on the premise that we can actually achieve parity Internet access, solar cells can take off and take off in China as a whole," said Peter Tinner, Oerlikon Solar's sales and marketing director.

However, as to whether the major PV companies can generally achieve one yuan of power generation, Miao Xiaokai said that there is no unified standard, but depends on a variety of factors such as lighting resources, system costs, and financing costs of the specific PV project location. “We have done a lot of overseas projects. Each project will give investors an analysis of the return on investment, which involves costs and electricity prices. But whether to achieve a one-yuan cost of power generation depends on specific cases.” Xiao Xiaoyu said.

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