Stick to the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land to ensure "safety on the tip of the tongue"

The 1.8 billion mu is calculated based on five sets of data:

The number of cultivated land. According to the survey conducted by the State Land Administration, the amount of net cultivated land is 1.97 billion mu.

Second, the population. According to departmental forecasts, by 2040 or 2050, the population peak will be 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion. By then, the urban population will be over 1 billion and the rural population will be around 500 million.

Third, the number of land used for urban and rural construction. At that time, there were 380 million mu of land for urban and rural construction. According to the actual occupation level of developed countries such as the United States and Japan at that time, according to the proportion of cultivated land and non-cultivated land in the newly occupied urban and rural construction in previous years, by 2040, urban and rural construction land will occupy 200 million of cultivated land. More than acre. There are also more than 100 million mu of cultivated land reduced by returning farmland and disasters.

Fourth, the number of cultivated land reserve resources. The country is suitable for the development of cultivated land resources, including farmland consolidation, abandoned land remediation, full of more than 200 million acres. The third and fourth groups of data increase and decrease, by 2040, can maintain 1.8 billion acres of arable land.

Fifth, the number of food needs. According to the per capita consumption level of the world's medium-developed countries, with reference to the food calories (medium demand) required by the World Food Organization per person per day, 500 kg of food per capita is required per year, and 750 billion kg is needed for 1.5 billion people.

However, China's total grain output has been hovering 500 billion kilograms for many years. If we can improve the quality of land and the level of agricultural science and technology, it is possible to increase the amount of 250 billion kilograms of food in more than 50 years.

It can be seen that 1.8 billion mu is the lower limit of the amount of cultivated land in China now and in the future. The 1.8 billion mu red line cannot be broken. This is not only a high-voltage line for protecting cultivated land, but also a warning line for food security.

(Original title: Why should we insist on the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land)