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Dynamic Analysis of LED Industry in the Third Quarter of 2014
LED chip and package index were weaker than the broader market: Taiwan's September LED chip index (ChipLEDX) fell 11.29, September LED package index (PackageLEDX) fell 4.95; Taiwan's electronic components index fell 8.02, Taiwan's weighted index fell 4.97. Chip-end inventory The adjustment factor decreased from the previous month, and the packaged end reached a record high: the chip-end revenue decreased by 6.74 in August, and Jingdian said that the LEDTV backlight entered the seasonal adjustment effect, the order visibility was not high, and the third quarter began to have digested inventory pressure. However, LED lighting is still optimistic. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the 11th holiday and the December Christmas demand. The performance of the package side was bright. The revenue in August increased by 4.82 points (mainly flat in August last year), a record high, and the package side is closer to the downstream, showing the current good performance of the LED industry. In the first eight months of the year, the chip end revenue reached 25.4%, and the package side increased by 15.7%. With the increasing proportion of LED lighting in the industry, the high-speed growth of LED lighting will become more and more obvious to the industry, and the subsequent growth rate is expected to accelerate. Industry dynamics and comments: LED lighting sales continued to rise in second-tier cities. In August, the price of LED bulbs declined slightly, and the overall trend was relatively stable. The three major applications of LED market growth led the development of the industry. 1. The sales of LED lighting continued to rise. The second-tier cities broke out. In the first half of this year, the refinancing channel of enterprises was opened, the policy environment was excellent, new products and new technologies in the semiconductor lighting field emerged in an endless stream, and the development momentum was flourishing. The supply and demand in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain were booming. The company represented by the company has gained more profits. With the soaring market sentiment, industry investment expansion and integration mergers and acquisitions are more normal and diversified, and demand is strong and competition is the most prominent performance of the industry. In the domestic market, in the first half of 2014, China's LED lighting products market performed outstandingly, with rapid growth and decreasing prices. With the sinking of corporate channels, the second-tier market has outstanding performance and the growth of commercial lighting is clear. Despite the impact of real estate and the impact of e-commerce, the overall efficiency of lighting product distributors is good, maintaining an overall growth rate of 20 or above and a gross profit margin of around 25. It is expected that with the arrival of the renovation season in the second half of the year, the growth rate in 2014 will reach a new high. Comments: 2014 is the first year of LED lighting domestic market began to fully penetrate, the retail sales achieved rapid growth. According to relevant data, in the first half of the year, the sales growth of LED lighting products in China's domestic market entity dealer channel was around 27.8. The dealers above 88 reported that the sales of LED lamps in 2014 have achieved a relatively obvious growth compared with 2013. Nearly 30% of the merchants indicated that the growth rate exceeded 30. Due to the temptation of huge profits in the LED market, the promotion of LEDs by manufacturers and distributors Constantly increasing: The primary and secondary markets have already entered the popularization stage, and the third and fourth-tier markets have followed suit. From the perspective of market level and channels, the second-tier market (mainly refers to the second-tier prefecture-level cities) broke out in 2014, the penetration rate increased by 15.5 percentage points, and the sales in the second-tier market increased by about 30 compared with the same period of last year. According to dealers' reports, 40% of the second-tier market dealers have a growth rate of more than 30, while 75 dealers have growth rates of more than 10. After more than a year of intensive cultivation in the second-tier market, major lighting companies have achieved significant results in channel layout and marketing promotion in the second-tier market. The growth rate of the first-tier market and the third-tier market should not be underestimated. The sales of the first-line market in the first half of the year increased by 19.27 compared with 2013, while the penetration rate climbed to 62 and stabilized. In the third-tier county-level cities, LEDs began to gradually recognize the people, and many enterprises have begun to strengthen the promotion, but LED There is still a gap between the penetration rate and the first- and second-tier cities. In the first half of 2014, the market growth rate was around 20. 2. The price of LED bulbs declined slightly in August, and the overall trend was relatively stable. The latest LED bulb retail price survey showed that the average retail price of LED bulbs replacing 40W in the world showed a small decrease of about 1.8 in August 2014, reaching US$14.2. The global average price of replacing 60W LED bulbs dropped by 0.9 to reach US$19.1. Comments: In August, the average price of global LED bulbs declined slightly, and the overall trend was relatively stable. Most product prices remained stable or slightly lowered. In place of the 40W commodity segment, the price of the UK region fell by 4.7 in August. The original commodity price basically showed a steady downward trend, and some commodity prices were more obvious. For example, the Toshiba 7.7W bulb, the original price was about 23.6 US dollars, and the August price. Dropped to $12.5. In addition, the price of the German region fell by 2.6 in August, and most of the original commodity prices showed a stable or small downward trend. The exchange rate changes also caused the average price to fall. The average price of goods in Japan replacing 40W showed a slight increase of about 0.3. The price of some original commodities fluctuated slightly, and the price of new items was high. For example, Mitsubishi Electric's 6W bulb, luminous flux of 500LM, the price is about 17 US dollars. The average price of commodities in the United States showed a slight increase of 0.9 in August. The price of most of the original products remained basically stable, and some commodity prices were raised. For example, CREE6W bulbs rose from US$4.97 to US$8.97 in August. In place of the 60W commodity segment, the price of the Japanese region fell sharply by 8.5 in August, reaching $16.8. The price of some original commodities has been lowered significantly. For example, Mitsubishi Electric's 11.4W bulbs fell from 18.3 to about US$11.8 in August. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations also led to a fall in average prices. In the United States, the price of the region increased by 5.5, the price of the original commodity showed a fluctuating trend, and the price of some items increased significantly. For example, the Philips11W830LM bulb, the price of this month was raised from 7.6 to 13 US dollars. In August, the prices of China and Taiwan increased slightly by 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. The prices of the original commodities in the two regions remained stable, mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations. 3, LED market rapid growth Three major applications lead the industry development With the advancement of urbanization and the promotion of efficient environmental protection lighting, LED industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Among the global LED application fields, the general-purpose lighting and automotive lighting fields are the fastest-growing markets, and have become an important driving factor for the rapid growth of the LED market in the future. In addition, the LED display application market still shows great growth potential and is one of the most stable growth points for LED applications. Comments: In the field of general lighting, it is predicted that the global LED lighting output value will reach 17.8 billion US dollars in 2014, and the total number of LED lighting products shipped will reach 1.32 billion. Philips' market forecast shows that by 2016, the global market for LED-related lighting products will reach 70 billion to 80 billion euros, and the proportion in the overall lighting market can reach 45-50. The current gross profit of automotive LED lighting products It is 3-5 times that of ordinary LED products. However, this huge market cake has been divided by foreign-funded enterprises or enterprises with foreign-funded backgrounds. Due to technical limitations, there are not many enterprises involved in the automotive lighting business. In recent years, with its unique core technology and excellent product quality, Shelley HID headlights have firmly occupied the leading position in the automotive lighting industry, which has won the ticket for its rapid penetration and entering the LED lamp market. In addition to general lighting and automotive lighting, the display is also one of the main applications of LEDs. The LED display has the advantages of high brightness, large viewing angle, long viewing distance, flexible shape and rich color, which can meet the needs of different application scenarios, especially in the large size display application. Since the beginning of the 1990s, China's LED display industry has maintained a high-speed development trend, which has created the initial prosperity of the LED industry. At present, the global LED display market is still in the ascendant stage. According to the China Optical Optoelectronics Industry Association's earlier forecast, the size of China's LED display market in 2013 will reach 24.094 billion yuan.