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I. Overall market trend and analysis of market segments
In the first quarter of 2010, the total target market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks exceeded 260,000 vehicles, an increase of 162% year-on-year. It is the best performer in the automotive segment and is expected to surpass 900,000 vehicles in the year, an increase of approximately 40% year-on-year.
From the displacement point of view, the engine with a displacement of about 10L is currently the largest displacement structure.
From the power point of view, the engine power of heavy trucks increases by an average of 10 horsepower per year, 300 horsepower this year, and it will reach 310 horsepower next year. According to the use, more than 50% of the tractors have a 330-370 horsepower, and 70% of the dump trucks are high horsepower, 290-340 horsepower. The main body of the market is 330-370 hp. Weichai and heavy-duty engines are benchmarks. The 300-horsepower low-horsepower engines mainly consist of Xichai, Yuchai, and Shangchai, but the demand structure is decreasing. In terms of emission standards, the national requirements are more stringent, but the degree of difference in implementation varies from place to place. EGR engines are the mainstay and dominate this year. However, high-pressure common rails dominated the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. At that time, most manufacturers had partially violated the National 2 engine. This year basically does not violate the rules, matching EGR engine, the proportion of the common rail gradually decreased to about 35%, in the short term, the amount of common rail may increase, but the proportion will certainly continue to decline, because the EGR engine is closer to the needs of users The advantage is that the price is low, the maintenance cost, the use cost are low, and the user is familiar, so the user likes. At present, all manufacturers basically have EGR engine resources, and the entire market is basically based on EGR. In the long run, since EGR does not have national environmental protection, the proportion will change in the future with strict regulations.
Second, the market trend summary First, the trend judgments.
This year's heavy-duty truck market will have a trend of highs and lows. In the second quarter, it will reach the peak of this year, and the total volume in the second quarter will exceed the first quarter. The market scale is 260,000 to 270,000 units in the first quarter. If it is conservative in the second quarter, it can exceed at least one quarter.
The main uncontrollable factors are:
1. Finance, auto consumption credit, and especially financial credit for heavy trucks, are more scalable in many places. At least more than half of the heavy trucks rely on finance. The financial model will determine consumer demand.
2. With the impact of freight rates and traffic volumes, the freight rate in March reached its peak value. The freight rate in the latter part of the year declined in March. It dropped from 2 blocks of 2 to 2 blocks of 6 tons to one block of 6 to 1 block 8, and now it has dropped more.
3, the user's income, from the vehicle price, in the process of rising raw materials, due to the existence of competition, the possibility of active prices of each host plant is not very large, the ability to transfer costs is not very strong, but the possibility of price cuts There is basically no sex, users find it difficult to buy a cheaper car, and then consider the freight rate and cost. The peak in the second quarter is mainly based on the above judgment.
Second, the structure and proportion of tractors will continue to rise, but the share of various brands in the industry will change greatly.
The largest increase in the proportion is Dongfeng and Liberation, especially Dongfeng. Before Dongfeng, the tractors did not do well, but through the second half of last year to the first quarter of this year, the performance was still good, the share increased a lot, the faster was liberated, mainly benefited from The release of production capacity. The largest decline in the proportion of heavy trucks and Hongyan, heavy truck mainly because of engine factors led to the decline in share. The most promising brand is Futian Auman, which is mainly focused on the balanced development of Foton. Recently, there is no force on tractors, and the second is the limited production capacity of Foton. However, in the future, as the new plant is put into operation in September of this year, a small batch of trial production will begin. It is estimated that it will begin to exert force in December, that is, in the fourth quarter when it will make reserves for the coming year. Overall, there will not be much contribution this year and there will be great opportunities next year.
Futian Automobile was given a "Recommended" rating, and Weichai Power was given a "carefully recommended" rating.