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The leader of the mainland LED chip leader Hengqiang Sanan Optoelectronics Huacan Optoelectronics is concerned
In terms of the long-cycle dimension, the LED chip is continuously developed under the driving of Haizi's law, and it alternately grows in different fields such as backlight, illumination and display, and the application field and market scale continue to expand. In the short-cycle dimension, LED chips are continuously developed under the driving of Haizi's law due to the mismatch between the supply and demand of LED chip capacity and the amplification effect caused by Over booking in the industry chain. Different areas such as lighting and display have been infiltrated and grown, and the application fields and market scale have continued to expand. In the short-cycle dimension, due to the mismatch between the supply and demand of LED chip capacity and the negative feedback caused by the amplification effect caused by Over booking in the industry chain, the LED chip industry also has periodic characteristics under the game of supply and demand. . Short-term view: 1H2018 supply and demand resonance, LED chip profit is relatively stable. Supply: When the leading manufacturer rationally expands the factory, it is estimated that 1H2018 global LED chip production capacity will only increase by about 5% compared with 4Q2017 (not considering capacity exit); demand side: It is estimated that LED lighting will increase by about 10% in 2018, and the small spacing in LED display will maintain a growth rate of around 30%. Other sub-segments such as automobiles also have the potential for rapid growth. 9% growth. Therefore, 1H2018 LED chip supply and demand is in a weak balance, the price will remain orderly. Medium and long-term perspective: LED applications continue to expand, future price decline will slow down The penetration rate of LED lighting market is expected to continue to increase, small-pitch LED display will also maintain high growth rate, Micro LED/Mini LED is expected to open LED growth space, downstream applications The field is full of flowers, and the demand for LED chips is expected to maintain a high growth rate. At the same time, it is expected that the marginal benefits of improving light efficiency will gradually decrease in the future, and the improvement of light efficiency will slow down. Therefore, the cost reduction will also slow down. In the medium and long term, the decline in LED chip prices will tend to be flat. Capacity transfer, mainland LED chip leader Hengqiang mainland LED chip manufacturers, with the support of local governments, relying on the advantages of capital, scale and other aspects to actively expand production, LED chip production capacity to the mainland, the industry concentration is significantly improved, according to LEDinside disclosure In 2017, the mainland accounted for 58% of global production capacity, and the top three manufacturers accounted for 68% of the total capacity of the mainland. In recent years, the localization of MOCVD equipment has helped domestic leaders to consolidate their competitive advantages. At the same time, Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics have integrated sapphire substrates upstream, and mainland China LED chip leader Hengqiang. Investment suggestion We are firmly optimistic about the domestic LED industry chain, it is recommended to pay attention to LED chip leader Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics, as well as the packaging leader in the LED industry chain, Mulinsen, the packaging company Ruifeng Optoelectronics, high-brightness LED display Companies such as Chau Ming Technology and Ai Bison in the market. Risk Warning The industry's economic downturn, raw material prices have risen sharply, the expansion schedule has not reached expectations, and new technologies have penetrated less than expected. (