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At the 2014 International Coking Coal Resources and Market Summit held recently, Wang Yingsheng, Director of the Market Research Department of the China Iron and Steel Association pointed out that the consumption of China's steel will still increase in 2014, but it will slow down compared to the rapid growth in previous years. It is expected to grow by about 30 million tons.
According to Wang Yingsheng, in 2013, China's crude steel production reached 779 million tons, an increase of 54.59 million tons, an increase of 7.54%. In 2013, the industry profit was 22.9 billion yuan, of which investment income was 17.8 billion yuan, and the iron and steel industry was only profiting 5.1 billion yuan, and it had a loss in January. In order to determine the market trend of the steel industry in 2014, Wang Yingsheng predicted the operation of the downstream steel industry: In 2014, investment in development of the real estate industry increased by 15%-17%, and new start-ups increased by 6%-8%; production and sales of machinery industry increased by 10%- 15%, export growth 5%-8%, profit growth rate is lower than 2013; auto industry production and sales continue to maintain growth of more than 10%, new energy vehicle production will further expand; home appliance industry sales revenue growth of 10%, export growth of 8%, Focus on product upgrades and production and sales of high-end products; the national railway plans to add 6,600 kilometers of mileage.
Based on the above forecast, Wang Yingsheng believes that steel demand will maintain positive growth in 2014 and is expected to increase by about 30 million tons. If the export volume still exceeds 60 million tons, this year's steel output will exceed 800 million tons. “The state has released a new type of urbanization plan and proposed that by 2020, the urbanization rate will reach 60%, which will benefit the steel industry.†Wang Yingsheng said, however, due to environmental protection, overcapacity and other factors, the steel industry’s economic performance is not optimistic. Industry difficulties will intensify.
Steel demand is expected to increase by about 30 million tons in 2014
With the rapid development of the national economy, demand for steel products has continued to grow. In this year’s government work report, China’s GDP growth target is set at around 7.5%, slightly lower than last year’s growth rate. The country will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy. The entire society's fixed asset investment is expected to grow by 17.5%, which is still a relatively rapid growth. The expected value of the above-scale industrial added value is around 9.5%, slightly lower than last year's level. As a key factor for steady growth, urbanization is a powerful engine for sustained and healthy economic development.