In the past decade, the rapid growth of car sales has made China promoted to be the world's largest automobile market. However, residents of many cities have also experienced the rapidity and convenience brought by the popularity of automobiles in the future, and they have become troubled by traffic congestion and air pollution. in.

In February last year, Beijing resorted to a stringent automobile purchase restriction order and issued only 240,000 new licenses in the ensuing year, compared with nearly 900,000 new cars in the city in the previous year. Subsequently, in the southwestern city of Guiyang, similar measures were also introduced in July. After a lapse of one year, Guangzhou has also joined the list of automobile purchase restrictions.

Guangzhou purchase limit, public opinion is awe-inspiring. Some people questioned whether such sudden hearings without a hearing were reasonable, and some people worried that buying restrictions was not a good way to stop blocking and improve the air. In the opinion of the automotive industry, what does this policy mean? Gasgoo.com launched the latest industry survey around the purchase restriction in Guangzhou. The survey has a total of 4 questions, which will be elaborated below in conjunction with the survey results and interviews with industry experts.

First, nearly half of the people in the industry expressed disappointment about how to treat the restrictions on the purchase of cars in Guangzhou. They believe that this practice is worsening for the already depressed automobile market. Some participants also stated that the high-speed growth of automobiles has become an unacceptable burden for the society, and that urban administrators have no choice but to adopt this “decision”, which is “acceptable,” but this group of people only accounts for 17% of the total number of votes. In addition, as many as 31% of the people in the industry chose a neutral attitude and expressed their expectation that the measures to relieve traffic and environmental pressures beyond the purchase restrictions.

Guangzhou auto purchase restrictions are undoubtedly a major blow to the local auto market. According to information released by the Guangzhou Municipal Government, since July 1st, the city’s small and medium-sized passenger cars will receive an increase of 120,000 vehicles in the future. This is less than half of the 242,000 cars on the medium and small passenger cars in Guangzhou last year. The restriction of purchase will directly reduce the sales volume in the regional market. What is even more worrisome is that this kind of administrative intervention may disrupt the rhythm of production and sales, and it is not conducive to the formation of a market order. At the same time, concerns about follow-up purchases in other cities may also undermine business confidence in the market. It can be said that the real impact is limited to the market outside Guangzhou.

There are also some people in the industry who have an understanding of this attitude and believe that the restriction of purchase is actually a reluctance to urban governance. According to statistics, as of June last year, the number of vehicles in Guangzhou reached 1.7 million. According to the incremental scale of 300,000 vehicles in Guangzhou in the year, as of June this year, the number of vehicles in Guangzhou should be around 2 million vehicles. Although it is far less than Beijing (4.7 million vehicles), there has been a serious imbalance between the growth of car ownership and the growth of roads and parking lots. In the past five years, the average annual growth rate of car ownership in Guangzhou was close to 20%, and the average annual growth rate of road mileage was about 2%. The ratio of registered berths to car ownership was 1:3.3. Traffic pressure can be seen.

In addition, one of the other factors that prompted Guangzhou to make up its mind to purchase is the environmental assessment. The "Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Major Environmental Protection Work" issued in November last year mentioned that it will strengthen the leadership and assessment of environmental protection work. This means that the environmental performance of local governments will be linked to the selection and appointment of officials and the approval of regional projects. Subsequently, the central government issued the "Ambient Air Quality Standards" and related standards and notices in February this year. It states that in 2012, key areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, as well as municipalities directly under the Central Government and provincial capital cities will carry out monitoring of PM2.5, and Guangzhou is among them. The notice also clearly pointed out that it is necessary to effectively strengthen the prevention and control of motor vehicle pollution. This has undoubtedly strengthened the determination to limit purchases for cities that had originally limited their purchase intentions but were hesitant.

As many as 31% of the participants chose neutral attitudes toward the Guangzhou purchase restriction behavior. They do not think that this will bring much impact on the auto market, nor do they agree with the government's rigid purchase restriction, but expect that the urban government can consider it. Other measures to control urban traffic and environmental pressures beyond the purchase restriction.

Similar to last year's introduction of automobile purchase restriction measures in Beijing, the Guangzhou purchase restriction order has caused a lot of discussions about whether other cities will follow up. From the results of our survey2, we can see that there are still people in the automotive industry who believe that the wind that will trigger automobile purchases will spread. About 42% of voters believe that the second and third tier cities are more likely to follow suit. At the same time, about 28% of people expressed optimism about the traffic and environmental pressures of other cities and considered that they were not serious enough to take the degree of restriction. Guangzhou purchases can only be considered as individual cases. Another 30% of people think that the conditions in each city are very different. It is difficult to determine whether they will also purchase cars.

Last year, Guiyang followed the introduction of a car purchase restriction order in Beijing, which enabled more people to understand that the contradiction between the proliferation of vehicles and the traffic environment resources had already spread to the second and third tier cities. According to data released by Guiyang Traffic Police Department at the time, as of the end of 2010, the number of motor vehicles in Guiyang reached 616,000, an increase of 7.7 times over 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 23%. Among them, 330,000 private cars accounted for 53.6% of the total number of motor vehicles. The existing road network resources in the core area of ​​the Old City of Guiyang cannot meet the growing needs of the people. At present, the area of ​​the core area of ​​the Old City with an area of ​​approximately 9 square kilometers is approximately 100,000 vehicles, and the demand for travel in the old city is as high as 300,000 vehicles far exceeds the capacity of the road network in the core area. The average peak saturation of major roads in the core area of ​​the Old City of Guiyang is 0.83-1.36, and over 90% of the road sections are at or near saturation.

Although there is no authoritative statistics on how many cities have the same traffic pressure as Guiyang. However, according to the media reports we monitored, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Xi’an, Chengdu, Nanjing and Hefei are all responsible. Traffic congestion issues have discussed or are discussing the issue of purchase restrictions and restrictions. And this may just be the tip of the iceberg. The sales volume of new cars in China has almost doubled in the past ten years. The growth of the auto market has driven the growth of car ownership in many cities far beyond the speed of road growth and infrastructure construction.

Moreover, as the rigid demand for first-time car purchases is still huge, Chinese car sales still have strong growth expectations in the future. If urban traffic roads and other facilities can not support the flow of vehicles, adopting restrictions on purchasing or other administrative and economic means for governance will be put on the agenda. At the same time, it also reminds cities with small traffic pressure that they should plan infrastructure such as transportation systems and parking lots in advance and actively respond to the advent of the automobile society.

Last year, the introduction of the Beijing Motor Vehicles Requisition, which led to the introduction of criticisms, has attracted countless criticisms. Guiyang's follow-up has also been accused of blindly following the trend, fainting or even lazy. Since restrictions on purchase are so unpopular, why are urban governance practitioners still favoring this law? According to the results of our survey3, there are two main reasons why restrictions on purchasing are the best choices for current urban governance. First, governance congestion is the most direct and effective by reducing the growth rate of vehicles; secondly, although the restriction of purchases substantially impairs the ownership of vehicles owned by residents. Rights, but given that there is no corresponding accountability mechanism, urban governance does not need to worry about the resulting responsibilities.

In our offline interview survey, one expert pointed out that the restriction of purchase may not be able to actually achieve immediate results, and different cities should also analyze it in detail. In Beijing, for example, restrictions on purchases have led to a sharp drop in car sales in the region. However, in a public opinion survey initiated by the city's Traffic Committee website, more than half of voters believe that traffic congestion in Beijing has not been effectively mitigated. “Beijing is like being ill and it is not a panacea. It will not be good to eat immediately, but it may worsen if you do not eat it,” said the expert. In fact, not only Beijing, but many years ago, the traffic congestion situation in Shanghai, where the use of card-picking to control automobile growth, is still serious. It can be seen that the restriction of purchase is only a solution to the problem. There are many other areas worthy of reflection in the face of congestion among local governments, such as the lack of public transport system construction and the excessive number of government official vehicles.

At the same time, 11% of people believe that because other governance measures are too slow, the government will give priority to purchase restrictions in the face of traffic and environmental pressure. At present, the governance methods adopted by foreign countries for traffic jams are mostly concentrated on the use of vehicles and are limited and guided by reasonable economic means. For example, congestion fees are charged for vehicles entering the city and diverted through intelligent network technology. In addition, some developed regions vigorously develop public transport systems, or they can also learn from domestic cities by decentralizing the functions of central urban areas, such as moving shopping and entertainment and other functional areas.

In addition, about 9% believe that for a city, more vehicles means more public spending, and local governments lack the incentive to own more cars, which makes them also tend to choose to purchase cars.

In the last survey question, we questioned the possible impact of the Guangzhou purchase restrictions on the auto market. Among the four options offered, “a large number of independent brand dealers were forced to evacuate from Guangzhou” received the most votes, 36 % of participants chose this item.

Judging from the experience of Beijing and Shanghai, the restriction of purchases is obviously a major bearish for the major brands that currently produce and sell middle and low-end models. Because for those who can't get the qualification of buying a car through a shake or a card, they are more inclined to buy a mid-to-high-end model in one step. The data shows that after the execution of the purchase restriction policy, the sales volume of self-owned brands in the Beijing area dropped significantly, and the market share decreased from 19.8% in 2010 to 10% in the first half of last year. Chery, BYD, Great Wall, Xiali and SAIC MG dealerships of their own brand dealers have already been delisted. It can be predicted that this scene will be staged in the Guangzhou auto market. Self-owned brands should make full preparations to reduce the risk of restriction.

Second, 27% of the participants voted for the option of “accelerating the survival of the fittest in local dealers in Guangzhou”. In addition to the impact on self-owned brands, the limited purchase will also accelerate the survival of the fittest for the entire automobile dealership industry. Because the restriction of purchase makes the market scale mandatory, this will inevitably lead to the unsustainable operation of some dealers with weaker competitiveness. Those dealers with abundant capital chain, rich customer resources and high service levels may find a chance. However, the number of voters who believe that the restriction of purchases may eventually lead to slowing down of production capacity and market expansion plans for auto companies accounts for about 25%. This group of people believe that the restriction may lead to a deceleration or even a decline in the auto market. This may force companies that are currently investing heavily in production expansion to slow down expansion plans.

In addition, some people think that the restriction of purchases in Guangzhou will lead to the acceleration of the development of foreign-brand car enterprises in areas outside Guangzhou. However, this group of people only accounted for 11% of the total votes.