Gold and commodity currencies have dual functions, in the history of human civilization, played a very important role. For a long time, gold has been used primarily for hard currency and decorations. The rise of the industrial revolution in the 20th century has brought good opportunities for gold development. The development of science and technology has made its application fields more extensive, and its use has begun to enter various fields of the industrial sector. The gold industry is a strategic industry related to financial security and national security. Especially since 2007, the financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has made gold's safe haven value function to the fullest, and gold has become a hot spot for mining investment. At present, the world economic situation is complicated, the impact of the financial crisis has not been completely eliminated, and the long-term upward trend of gold prices will not change. Under this situation, what are the development trends and directions of China's gold industry, and what problems should we take to ensure its healthy and sustainable development is a concern of everyone. I. Judging the future development trend of China's gold industry China's gold resources are widely distributed, with abundant reserves and huge resource potential. According to the domestic and international economic situation and the development of China's gold industry, in the future, China's gold industry will continue to develop steadily and rapidly, and present the following five major trends: (1) The trend of continuous expansion of the scale and continuous extension of the industrial chain From 1949 to 2009, with the continuous improvement of China's gold industry policy environment, gold exploration capacity and mining and smelting technology continue to increase, gold production continues to grow (Figure 1). In 2007, gold production surpassed South Africa for the first time, ranking first in the world; in 2009 it reached 313.98t, a record high; for three consecutive years to maintain the status of the world's largest gold producer. It is expected that the scale of the gold industry will be further expanded in the coming period, and will gradually expand from the development of single mineral gold to the development of by-product gold and smelting gold, from the development of single minerals, gradually forming a large gold-based, multi-metal development. Trends; products with high processing and high added value such as gold purification and deep processing are increasingly dominant in the industrial structure. The gold industry has developed into a specialized and high-end technology development field, showing a trend of gold-based and diversified development. Figure 1 China's gold production from 1949 to 2009 (II) The development of the gold industry in the direction of clustering, and the trend of increasing market concentration In the context of economic globalization, industrial clusters have become an effective way to allocate and enhance competitive advantages in many regions around the world. China's gold industry is also developing in the direction of base and park, such as Shandong Zhaoyuan Gold Industrial Park, Yantai Gold Industrial Park, Shaanxi Shaoguan Gold Industrial Park and Shenzhen Luohu Jewelry Industrial Cluster Base. At the same time, through horizontal integration activities such as asset restructuring, resource integration and elimination of backward production capacity, the small and scattered situation began to change, the industrial concentration was significantly strengthened, and large groups and large companies developed rapidly, gradually becoming the dominant gold industry in China. The backbone of development. In the first half of 2010, the top 10 Chinese gold companies produced 78.83 tons of gold, accounting for 49.5% of the country's total output, and retained gold resources reserves accounted for more than 60% of the country's total reserves. It is expected that in the future, there will be three dominant competition patterns such as China Gold, Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold. At the same time, the company itself is also developing towards vertical integration, that is, vertical penetration and expansion in supply, production and sales, and participation in different levels of activities in an industry value chain. (3) Developing a circular economy and promoting the trend of cleaner production The development of circular economy is the trend of the world today. It embodies the essential requirements of people-oriented, building a harmonious society, comprehensive and coordinated sustainable development, and is an important strategic measure for transforming the mode of economic growth and taking a new road to industrialization. From the perspective of international industrial development trends, many countries are now pursuing cleaner production, which is the only way for the development of the gold industry. (4) Coordinated development trend of the East, Central and West regions The refractory metallurgical mining technology breakthrough and the promotion of a series of regional development strategies and strong measures in the development of the western region and the rise of the central region have prompted the transfer of key development areas of China's gold mining industry to the central and western regions. The basic situation of regional coordinated development has begun to take shape, providing gold mining. The "strategic space" of the move. Compared with 10 years ago, although the situation of China's gold productivity layout has not changed fundamentally, the status of the central region has obviously improved. From the perspective of industrial structure, the eastern gold industry is mainly for gold mining and smelting; the central part is the gold mining and non-ferrous metal processing industry; the west is still a region to be further developed, and mineral gold and non-ferrous metal by-product gold production have great potential. (V) Development trend of financial market financialization While the production capacity and mining technology continue to make progress, from 2001, the plan system for the “purchase of the unified purchase†of gold was cancelled. By 2008, the gold futures were officially listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the gold market in China gradually formed and improved. At present, the gold market is in the initial stage of development of physical commodity trading to financial investment-type gold trading. It is foreseeable that the development of secondary financial products based on gold spot and derivatives will be a new hot spot for future gold trading, and the financialization trend of China's gold market is obvious. Second, the problems in the development of the gold industry (1) Geological exploration work lags behind and resource guarantee is low Geological exploration is an important basic work for the development of the gold industry. At the same time, the exploration industry is also the most upstream industry in the gold industry chain, directly affecting the development of the gold industry. Overall, compared with the world's major powers, China's geological exploration work has yet to be developed. First of all, China lacks a risk exploration market mechanism and the mining capital market is not perfect. Secondly, the proportion of gold mine geological exploration inputs to metal mineral exploration inputs continues to decline (Figure 2). Third, through years of mining, China's high-grade gold mines, shallow areas and areas with better development conditions have gradually reduced resources, and exploration and development have turned to deep and complex areas, and the difficulty of prospecting has gradually increased. The reserve reserves of domestic gold mineral resources are growing slowly. In 2008, the static guarantee of gold resource reserves was less than 5 years on average, far below the world average guarantee level of 19 years. Figure 2 Gold mine geological survey investment ratio and employees Source of data: "Comprehensive Statistical Report on Land and Resources" (2000-2008), Ministry of Land and Resources. (2) The resource division is more serious and the development capability is dispersed. Due to historical reasons, China's gold industry is a multi-head development, and some in a mining area or even a vein, divided into several enterprises for mining activities. Although the road of scale management has been discussed for many years, overall, the division of resources, repeated construction, the number of mines, the wide area, and the problem of dispersion still restrict the development of the gold industry. In 2008, there were 1,687 gold mines in China, and large and medium-sized mines accounted for only 7% of the total number of mines (Figure 3). Figure 3 China's gold mining enterprise scale structure in 2008 Source: National Statistical Report on the Development and Utilization of Non-oil and Gas Mineral Resources in 2008, Ministry of Land and Resources. (3) Market concentration is relatively low In recent years, the situation of China's gold industry is “small and scatteredâ€, and a new pattern of orderly net increase and cooperative development led by large gold groups is taking shape, and industrial concentration is constantly improving. However, compared with countries with developed gold industries such as the United States and South Africa, the market concentration of China's gold industry is still at a relatively low stage. At present, there is no gold enterprise with an annual output of more than 100 tons in China, and the 15 companies with the largest global gold production, such as Newmont in the United States, Anglo Gold Ashanti in South Africa, and Pakistan in Canada. Companies such as Barrick Gold produce more than a hundred tons, with the Newmont family producing more than 200 tons per year. At the same time, the global large-scale gold companies continue to increase their control over resources. At present, Barrick Gold's gold reserves in Canada have reached 4,307 tons, Newmont's reserves in the United States are 2,642 tons, and China's gold resources are the largest companies in China. The group has only more than 1,200 tons. (4) The proportion of industries at the front end of the industrial chain is relatively large, and the development of the industrial chain such as processing and investment markets is relatively lagging behind. Generally speaking, China's gold industry structure shows that the basic raw material industry is too large, the proportion of resource industry is too large, the industrial chain is short and thin, the comprehensive supporting ability is weak, and the level of cyclical combination between industry and industry is low. Especially in developed countries such as the United States, the development of the follow-up industry chain of gold industry trading, investment, processing and retailing is still lagging behind. From the perspective of processing depth and the ratio between upstream and downstream sectors, the development of high-processing industries is insufficient. The added value of products is still low, and there is still a big gap compared with the international level. For example, jewelry manufacturing is the largest demand side in China's gold market. However, China's gold jewelry export products have been mainly processed and processed, and the brand advantage is not obvious. The economic potential still needs to be tapped. At the same time, China's current gold market is in the stage of development of physical commodity trading to financial investment-type gold trading, and the proportion of investment demand is relatively small. In 2008 alone, China's jewellery used more than 360 tons of gold, while investment funds only had more than 180 tons. The lack of innovation and integration of gold investment varieties lags behind the development of the international gold market. (5) The phenomenon of “isomorphism†and “lower degree†in the structure of gold industry in various regions In recent years, as the international gold price has been running at a high level, there has been a “golden development fever†in various places, especially the major gold and mineral resources provinces such as Shandong, Henan, Anhui, and Fujian, which have proposed relevant support policies to develop the gold industry in the region. . Therefore, to a certain extent, the structure of the gold industry in the region is “small but complete†and “large and completeâ€. The competition between raw materials and markets is rampant, and the structure of the gold industry is homogenized and inferior. (6) Less gold reserves, the reserve mechanism needs to be improved During the 30 years of reform and opening up, China’s foreign exchange reserves have increased sharply, while gold reserves have been at a low level for a long time. As of September 2009, although China's gold reserves have been adjusted to 1054t, the proportion of China's foreign exchange reserves is still less than 2%. The gold reserves of developed countries account for 40% to 60% of foreign exchange reserves, and the euro zone's gold reserves account for 60.8% of foreign exchange reserves. It can be seen that China's 1054t gold reserves are still relatively small. Third, countermeasures and suggestions (1) Strengthening geological exploration and consolidating the foundation of industrial development Around "Jiamusi, Yanbian-Dongning, Wulashan-Daqingshan, Yanliao, Ji'nan-Liaodong, Xiaoqinling-Xiongshan, Jiaodong, Xiqinling, Dongqinling, Songqi-Motianling, Guigui, Golden Triangle, Ailao The key metallogenic belts such as the mountains, the southern section of the Sanjiang River, the northern section of the Sanjiang River, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are aimed at the prospecting area of ​​mineralization. In terms of deployment arrangements, the three main focuses are the new area, the deep area and the large mine. Efforts will be made to promote the transformation of geological prospecting from shallow to deep, from old to new, from small to large, and strive to form a new pattern of exploration and development coordination, deep coordination of old areas, and coordination between domestic and foreign countries. To strive for a substantial breakthrough in the exploration of new types of gold mines and large and medium-sized gold mines as soon as possible. Increase investment in gold geological exploration, promote the establishment of risk exploration market mechanism, and propose investment, financing and management policies suitable for China's gold mining industry, actively guide the use of domestic and foreign funds to invest in the mineral rights market, and improve the overall level of gold mineral exploration, mining and smelting. benefit. (2) Vigorously promote the integration of gold resources, standardize the mining order, and establish a resource allocation system. Using economic, legal and necessary administrative means, we will rely on local governments, increase departmental efforts, vigorously promote the integration of gold resources, and optimize the development pattern. First, we must improve the industry's entry barriers and rationally set mining rights. Standing on the national resource strategy, we will improve the access threshold for gold exploration and development from the aspects of technology, capital and security, and regulate the rational setting of gold mines and mining rights from the source. The second is to increase the intensity of rectification. Strictly crack down on illegal activities in the illegal exploitation of gold resources. The third is to encourage and support enterprises to go out and use overseas resources to expand development space. The main target countries and regions are Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia and Africa. (3) Accelerating the adjustment of industrial organization structure and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure Promote the integration of large group bases and rely on the “resources†and “capital†wheels to jointly promote resource integration and corporate restructuring on existing important metallogenic belts, and gradually establish cross-regional, cross-sectoral, and cross-ownership mining. Group, strengthen competitiveness. Carry out the concept of "gold-based, diversified development", adhere to the direction of marketization, industrialization, and socialization, and strive to build a coordinated industrial development pattern between the gold industry and the non-gold industry. At the same time as the exploration of gold main minerals, the exploration of non-gold mineral resources will be strengthened, and comprehensive exploration, comprehensive evaluation and comprehensive development will be carried out. It is necessary to develop high-tech projects in a timely manner, especially for deep processing of gold products. Vigorously develop the circular economy of the gold industry, extend the industrial chain, and form an ecological industrial network that meets the requirements of the circular economy. (4) Enhancing the capacity of independent innovation and improving the level of industrial technology Focus on the key technologies for transforming and upgrading traditional industries, and increase scientific and technological innovation. Focusing on mining, selection and smelting, we will focus on researching new technologies and technologies to improve the technical level of traditional industries and eliminate backward technologies. First, improve the level of exploration technology and equipment for deep resources. Vigorously promote energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, refractory gold ore smelting technology, and research and development and introduction of tailings resource utilization comprehensive utilization technologies and equipment. At the same time, we must actively promote the process of enterprise informationization, use information technology to transform and promote industrial technology upgrades. (5) Pay attention to the scientific, systematic and supporting nature of industrial policy formulation Industrial policies should be based on economic and legal means, indirect regulation, supplemented by administrative means and direct regulation, and establish exchange and consultation mechanisms between governments, industry associations and enterprises in the process of industrial policy formulation. Establish an industrial-regional dual-coordinate positioning policy plan, formulate a national key development strategy for the gold industry, form regional characteristics and complementary advantages, avoid regional industrial structure convergence, resulting in redundant construction and chaotic layout. (6) Actively integrate into the trend of economic globalization and accelerate industrial development Economic globalization is one of the two major trends in the development of the world today. Gold mining must grasp, adapt and actively integrate such a trend to achieve the globalization of gold mining production, capital, trade, technology, information and human resources. This includes actively supporting and encouraging qualified enterprises to develop gold mineral resources overseas, creating conditions for large-scale gold companies to raise funds at home and abroad. 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